For sure (in a way).
Nothing lasts for ever. Even the physical card you carry has an expiry date on it (read: obsolescence).
Unlike The VHS tape or the CD player or Blockbuster, there is a very powerful and controlling lobby and industry behind money.
Everyone in the credit card industry are aware that the card has got to go eventually, but they will phase it out. Millions of POS terminals will be gone. Tens of thousands of people employed in this card printing, distributions, POS servicing, customer service, etc. will be made redundant.
Almost a decade back, companies like American Express established a small division to transition the flow from the much recognized and loved physical card to the digital card. How do you change a mindset that valued a piece of plastic in different color shades that showed wealth (green, silver, gold, platinum, black, etc.)
Will mobile payments over take credit cards? Most likely not. The card associations are extremely well networked, unlike a mobile payment company. With the card networks, a lot of entities make money, not so with mobile payments.
What you will eventually see is the morphing of your credit cards into the mobile and your next credit payment (note the change in the words, credit payment vs credit card payment) will be made with a mobile electronic device.
The hurdles are adoption and why-leave-money-on-the-table? Credit card companies are making a very decent living. Wallet holders are still selling wallets with slots for cards. Your marketing campaigns are being placed so that receiving a plastic in mail, is a sense of some financial accomplishment (even for the millennials).
The transition will me much more quicker if the card associations can be assured that each and every mobile carrier will be connected to their platform (for native payments) or else, each and every card holder would have to download a specific app from their bank to make payments. I believe this is the stone in the shoe scenario. The apps that banks need to transition to – to make it happen.
Non-card companies like Apple, AliPay, WePay, EasyPaisa, etc. will all play along, but will also continue to build their own ecosystems (even though they may seem like walled gardens). Interoperability in money will make seamless payments to happen, something that was supposed to happen a long time ago.